Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Trump Up In 3 New Surveys - Harris Leads In 2 Others
The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a seeming dead heat just over two weeks before the election, according to at least six surveys over the past week that show Harris with a narrow advantage and three others that found Trump has a slim lead—though the key swing states are virtually tied.
Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in aCNBC surveyof registered voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in aWall Street Journalregistered voter poll out Wednesday (margin of error 2.5)—a shift in Trump’s favor since August, whenHarris led47% to 45% in a Journal survey.
Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, nationally among likely voters, including those who are leaning toward one candidate, according to aHarrisX/Forbes surveyreleased Wednesday (margin of error 2.5), and he’s up one point, 49% to 48%, without so-called leaners.
Several other recent polls show Harris ahead: In aMonmouth University pollof 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47%-44% advantage over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.
Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGovsurveyof likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) with third-party candidates on the ballot and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point dip in her lead from the groups’ previous survey taken Oct. 12-15.
Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’sweekly pollreleased Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior to last week.
A Reuters/Ipsospoll, also released Tuesday, found Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points when using rounded figures, within the poll’s two-point margin of error); last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll also found her with a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.
Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, in a USA Today/Suffolk Universitypollof likely voters taken Oct. 14-18 (margin of error 3.1), as Trump has narrowed the margins since the groups’ last poll taken in August that found Harris ahead by five points.
Harris also led Trump by just one point—49%-48%—inEmerson College’s pollof likely voters published Friday, after Harris posted two-point leads in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.
Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her edge has decreased slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’sweighted polling average.